Every spread, total, and moneyline on every FBS-vs-FBS matchup gets a grade — from A+ all the way down to No Edge. Re-graded every 30 minutes, and every call we've ever made stays on the record, losses included.
Every graded bet gets a row like this — here's the spread on Oklahoma @ Michigan. Here's how to read it.
This is one row from the Board — a single bet. Every graded spread, total, and moneyline gets its own. Click any row to expand the journal, the model reads, and the tier rationale.
Every bet on the board — spread, total, and moneyline — tier-graded and best-book named. Every FBS-vs-FBS matchup with open lines; we don't grade games against FCS opponents. Re-graded every 30 minutes as the market moves. The "what's the bet right now" view.
The full slate ahead — every upcoming FBS-vs-FBS game on the schedule, with a tier badge on the matchups that already have bets live on the Board. And it doesn't stop at kickoff: once games go live, Upcoming follows them in real time with scores and in-game updates. The "what's coming, what's playing, and where the edges are" view.
Every release-to-current journey on every pick. Tier upgrades, downgrades, line moves, best-book swaps — everything we did to a pick lives on the pick. You can audit any call back to its first publish.
Each model's read on a dot plot against the market line, the firing model highlighted when a bet is live, and the editorial write-up per game. Click any pick to go deep.
A+ Board, 2024–2025. 0.8 percentage point difference between seasons.
1,056 graded selections. Three audit passes. Two full rebuilds.
Every signal that didn't hold up year over year got cut. The number that remains is real.
A record only means something if you can't move the goalposts. Here's exactly how a bet gets settled.
We grade ourselves on the number we gave you — not the one that would've looked best.
SP+ — Bill Connelly's efficiency model. Adjusts for opponent strength.
Elo — Head-to-head record over time. Context only — it never fires a pick.
PPA — Expected points per play. The drive-by-drive read.
Advanced — Success rate, explosiveness, finishing drives. The "how" of efficiency.
Pace+ — Our in-house model. Possession elasticity weighted by opponent strength.
A bet doesn't fire because the models average out a certain way. It fires when one model's read lands inside a specific set of criteria — a proven combination of model, market, edge size, and line range. When that happens, we publish the pick and tell you which model fired it. When nothing lands, that's No Edge.
The game page is the deepest view on the site — a written narrative, the stats, and the head-to-head history all sit alongside the model reads. Here's how those reads look: every model's number on one axis against the market line, for the spread on Oklahoma @ Michigan.
Five reads on one axis, against the market line — with the blue band showing where games at this number have historically landed. A bet fires when one model's read sits far enough off the line to meet a specific set of criteria: a proven combination of model, market, edge size, and line range. Here that's Pace+, and that firing model is the pick. When none of them meet the criteria, no dot turns rust — instead the chart shows a single gold dot, an aggregate of the models, and the read grades No Edge.
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2026 is the first season under the locked spec. Every game. Every grade. Live.