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01 — The grades

What each grade means.

Every grade is a count of independent agreement — how many of our proven signals fired on the same side of the same bet, minus any that fired against it. Two signals is a C. Eight or more is an A+. A lone signal with nothing backing it doesn't clear the bar and grades No Edge. The signals were found and tested across 2023–25; the grades they earn now are settled in public, game by game, on Results. Every grade is a published verdict, including the ones that say "pass."

Spread & Total
A+Eight or more, clear
The rarest verdict on the board — after subtracting every signal pointing the other way, eight or more are still on the same side of the same number.
AGold — five to seven clear
A strong majority of independent signals on one side, with the disagreements already netted out.
BSilver — three or four clear
Real agreement, and enough of it to publish.
CBronze — two clear
The widest net we cast — two signals agreeing, and still a published, graded bet.

No Edge Everything else grades No Edge — including a game where exactly one signal fires and nothing corroborates it. One voice on its own didn't beat the vig across three seasons of testing, so we don't put your money behind it. We publish that verdict too, right on the board, next to the games we did bet.

Moneyline

The moneyline runs on its own signal set — rebuilt from scratch for 2026. Instead of borrowing spread signals, we searched the same three seasons for patterns that predict who wins — a different question than who covers — and only the survivors made the book. The grades count independent agreement here too, with one guard: moneyline signals that come from the same model share a single vote, so the count can't be padded by one model repeating itself.

A+All four models
Every model in the book landed on the same team to win outright, with nothing pulling the other way.
AGold — three models
Three of the four on the same side after disagreements net out.
BSilver — two models
Two clear votes for the same winner.
CBronze — one model
A single model's vote, unopposed. It clears the bar here — unlike on the spread, where one lone signal grades No Edge.

Same letters, different arithmetic — and that's deliberate. A spread grade counts agreement across 253 signals, so it takes eight to reach A+. A moneyline grade counts agreement across four models, so four is A+. An A+ moneyline means every model agreed; it does not mean the same thing as an A+ spread, and we'd rather say so than quietly re-letter one to match the other. The two answer different questions — a spread asks who covers, a moneyline asks who wins. And we only publish a moneyline priced between −300 and +300; outside that band the payout math stops being worth your money.

The bolt. Some picks carry a small bolt on the badge — our streak marker. It fires when a team's recent form sits in a band the market has historically mispriced and our pick already points the same way. It never changes a grade and never fires a pick on its own; the game page explains each one in plain words.

02 — Four ways in

Four doors. One board behind them.

Same picks, same grades, same numbers — four different jobs you'd hire them for. Go straight at the bets, walk the slate game by game, stack legs into a ticket, or hand over a bankroll and let it size everything. Move between them whenever you want; nothing you do on one changes what another shows.

Live Lines — the board

On Live Lines, every bet is one row, ranked by grade. The grade sits on the left; the bet and the best book sit in the middle. Tap any row to open its full history. Here's a real one — the spread on Oklahoma @ Michigan.

A+
Oklahoma @ Michigan
Oklahoma +3 · DraftKings + 2 others
Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET
History
Released A+ · Oklahoma +2.5 at Bovada
Wed, Sep 9 · 6:12 PM
Line moved +2.5 → +3 · best book Bovada → DraftKings
Fri, Sep 11 · 9:40 AM
Current · A+ holding · Oklahoma +3 at DraftKings
Now
Other books
Bet at DraftKings → Full game breakdown →
The grade. The tier badge — A+ here, eight or more independent signals on the same side. The small on its corner is the streak marker from section 01.
The pick & best book. The exact side and number, the juice when it isn't standard, and where that line is best right now. "+ 2 others" means other books match it.
The journal. Open the row: the release, every line move and grade change since, and the current state — all on the record, nothing overwritten.
Bet it / break it down. Jump straight to the book, or open the full game page for the deep view.
The lock. Until kickoff, picks re-grade with the market every 30 minutes. At kickoff the row freezes as released — the grade and number you see from then on are the ones the bet settles at.
Upcoming — the slate

Upcoming is the other door: every FBS-vs-FBS game as a card — kickoff time on top, the matchup in the middle, and the grades on the front, one slot each for Spread, Total, and ML. A badge in a slot means that bet is live on the board; an empty slot means that market has nothing yet. Scan the week, spot the games that matter, tap any card for its game page.

When a game kicks off, its card becomes a scoreboard. The score takes over as the headline with a pulsing LIVE tag, the quarter and clock, down and distance, and a possession dot beside the team with the ball. The grades stay exactly as released — locked at kickoff — with a small ▲ or ▼ beside each pick showing live whether it's tracking to cash or running behind. At the final whistle the card flips to its gold final state, a ✓ or ✕ lands on every pick, finals sink to the bottom of the slate, and the graded picks post to Results.

03 — One grade, everywhere

Where the grade shows up.

A bet's grade follows it across the whole product. Same verdict, everywhere you meet it.

Live Lines
As a row
The grade badge anchors each bet's row — the bet-first view, ranked so the strongest sit up top.
Upcoming
As a badge
The same grade rides on the matchup in the slate, so you can scan the week and see where the edges are.
Game page
At the top
Open any game and the grade leads the page, with the full reasoning laid out underneath it.
Parlay
On every leg
Each leg carries its grade into the ticket, and the ticket shows the combined odds and hit probability.
Allocator
On every stake
The badge rides each sized bet, so you can see what conviction your dollars are following.
Results
As released
Once a game is final, the grade you saw at release is the grade on the card — with the win, loss, or push next to it.
04 — The deep view

The game page.

Tap "full game breakdown" on any bet and you land on the deepest view on the site. It's where the grade gets explained — in writing, in the numbers, and in the model reads.

The model reads are the heart of it. Each model puts its number on one axis against the Vegas line. A pick exists because proven signals fired on that side — usually several at once — and the grade is their net agreement; the panel under the chart names each one and shows the vote. When nothing proven fires, the market grades No Edge and the chart shows a single gold dot instead — the blend of all four models — published all the same.

Behind the dots, a shaded curve shows where games like this one actually landed — and it's split at the Vegas line: the gold side is where this pick cashes, the blue side is where it doesn't. Under every chart, the history check states the evidence in one sentence: how many signals back the pick, and how the side they pointed to actually did.

Spread
Vegas: Mich −3
Elo−3.5
SP+−1.5
PPA−2
Pace++0.5
Adv−0.5
−9
−6
Vegas −3
0
+3
+6
History check: 4 signals back this pick — the side they pointed to covered 61.4% of their games in 2023–25.
Vegas line
Each model's read
Where these games land — gold side, the pick cashes
05 — Parlay

Stack the edges.

The Parlay page turns graded picks into tickets. Grab pre-built cards, or build your own from the full board — every leg is priced against the current best market line, and the card shows two numbers side by side: our hit probability (each leg's win probability multiplied through) and Vegas's implied (the probability the ticket's own price says it needs). The gap between them is the whole point.

The three pre-built cards are one dial, turned three ways. Safest counts only how often legs hit. Best weighs how often against how much — the strongest value per dollar. Longshot weighs the payout double, so genuine dogs top the ticket while the grade still breaks the near-ties. Each card names the book paying the most for the whole ticket, with every book's price behind it.

06 — Allocator

Your bankroll, split for you.

Tell the Allocator how much you're putting in play. It sizes every bet on the board by how far our win probability sits above what the price requires, weighted by how often the bet actually cashes — so a strong edge at a fair price gets the biggest slice, a thin edge gets a sliver, and anything at or below its price gets nothing at all. Bets that don't earn a stake simply drop off the sheet.

Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive tilt the same math toward steadier bets or bigger payouts. Toggle in a parlay or two if you want them in the mix. And if you only use one sportsbook, pick it at the top — every stake re-sizes at that book's lines and juice, picks it doesn't post disappear, and every bet button points where you actually bet. The sheet ends with the total to have at each book.

When the sheet is how you want it, send it to My Bets. The whole allocation lands in your ledger as editable rows — every side, book, price, and stake already filled in. Correct anything the book gave you differently, drop what you didn't place, and it's logged. That's the handoff: the Allocator decides how much, My Bets records what you actually did.

07 — My Bets

Your money, your ledger.

My Bets is the one page on this site that isn't about our picks — it's about yours. Log a bet in a few taps: week, game, spread or total or moneyline, which side, which book, the price you got, the amount. Multi-leg parlays too. It's private to your login and nobody else sees it, including us in any form that's tied to you.

You're graded on your number, not ours. If we published Oklahoma +3 and you got +3.5, your ledger settles at +3.5 — the line you actually bet, from the side you actually took. That's the same rule we hold ourselves to on Results, pointed at your slip instead of our board. Where we have a pick on a game you've logged, the row shows which side we're on, so you can see when you're with us and when you're on your own.

It goes live when the games do. Leave it open on your phone during the slate and every ticket carries its current standing — a mark and a plain-words reason, like a red ✕ with "USC down 10" on a moneyline, or a green ✓ with "total 15 under the line" on an under. Parlays roll up to the ticket: one leg gone is the ticket gone. When a game goes final the mark settles, the profit and loss lands, and the season total moves.

You can delete a bet right up until its game kicks off. After that it's part of the record — which is the point of keeping one.

08 — Results & Rankings

The record, and the map.

Results is Live Lines for games that are over. When a game kicks off its picks leave the board; when it goes final they land there — the released grade on the badge, the pick at the number it was graded on, a ✓, ✕, or – next to each, and the final score up top. Every card links back to the game page's final state. Graded no-edge verdicts appear too, dimmed — published, but never counted in the record, because they were never bets.

Rankings is the same engine pointed at the season: every FBS team, ranked by the models that grade the bets — the "who's actually good" view behind every number on the board.

09 — After the game

We're graded on the number we gave you.

When a bet releases, we freeze the line and tier we published. It re-grades against the live market every 30 minutes and can slip to No Edge as the line moves. At kickoff it locks as released. When the game ends, win or loss is scored against the number we released — not a friendlier closing line. Every result lands on Results, win or lose, next to the games we passed on.

See it for yourself.

Release pricing — locked for the life of your subscription.

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